AGP Executive Report

Afghanistan Security & Crime: Taliban authorities report a sharp rise in arrests over the past month, targeting armed robberies, theft of gold and phones, car and livestock theft, weapons smuggling, and narcotics-linked networks across provinces including Kabul, Kunduz, Helmand, Khost, and Paktia. Water & Rural Infrastructure: In Logar’s Baraki Barak district, construction has started on a DACAAR-funded 9 million afghanis water supply network—deep well drilling, a 40-cubic-metre reservoir, 16,618 metres of pipelines, and taps for 193 households—aiming to deliver safe drinking water within three months. Regional Connectivity & Trade: Uzbekistan says foreign trade surged in Jan–Apr 2026, with China as the top partner and fast growth also linked to Afghanistan; meanwhile, the Termez Dialogue highlights plans for Afghanistan-linked transit, including the Afghan-Trans railway feasibility work. Cross-Border Security Cooperation: Pakistan and Russia signed SCO-linked agreements to curb illegal immigration and expand counter-narcotics cooperation, while talks with Tajikistan focused on terrorist camps and drug production concerns in Afghanistan. Food Security Shock: UN/WFP warns the Iran conflict is pushing millions toward hunger, including an added 2.3 million in Afghanistan as energy and food prices rise and aid faces funding shortfalls.

Regional Connectivity & Rail: At the second Termez Dialogue in Tashkent, Uzbekistan pushed a faster track for Afghanistan-linked transit, saying the Afghan-Trans railway feasibility study is in an active phase and should finish by year-end, with talks also highlighting how stability in Afghanistan could open the shortest route to seaports and expand trade deals worth about $5 billion since late 2025. Agriculture Shock in Afghanistan: Floods in Baghlan have destroyed over 70,000 jeribs of farmland, including tens of thousands of rain-fed and irrigated plots, dealing a direct blow to rural production and farmer incomes. Power Reliability in Kabul: Kabul residents report worsening electricity outages, with some households getting only around three hours of power daily, raising concerns for industry, investment, and daily economic activity. Food Security Pressure: The UN World Food Programme warns the Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions are driving fuel and transport costs up, pushing millions toward hunger; it flags Afghanistan as facing severe food insecurity risks for millions, with additional people at risk if trade and energy disruptions persist. Sanctions & Energy Trade: The U.S. Treasury imposed new sanctions on an Iranian-linked LPG smuggling and shadow-banking network, naming an Afghan national among those accused of helping move disguised fuel shipments across South and East Asia.

Food Security Shock: The UN World Food Programme says the West Asia conflict is pushing millions toward hunger as oil prices stay high, shipping routes are disrupted, and aid funding falls—Afghanistan is flagged with 17.4 million people affected and 2.3 million more at risk if disruptions persist. Water & Agriculture Pressure: UNAMA reports more than half of Afghans are hit by drought and water scarcity, with failing irrigation, shrinking rivers, and extreme weather damaging crops and livelihoods. Aid Supply Strain: WFP Acting Executive Director Carl Skau says shortages are already reaching clinics, including cases near Jalalabad where mothers are leaving with visibly malnourished children because nutrition supplies ran out. Health Sector Coordination: Afghanistan’s Public Health Ministry met WHO to strengthen health programmes, including polio lab operations and new initiatives. Connectivity & Trade: Afghanistan is pushing for expanded transit cooperation at the Termez dialogue as regional partners discuss trade and connectivity. Environment Day Focus: UNAMA marks World Environment Day by linking deforestation, overgrazing, and unregulated mining to biodiversity loss and worsening public health.

Agribusiness Shock: Floods in Baghlan have destroyed over 70,000 jeribs of farmland, wiping out rain-fed and irrigated plots and hitting farmers’ investments hard. Power & Industry Risk: Kabul residents report worsening, frequent power outages that disrupt internet, water access, education, and work—raising costs for households and businesses. Mining & Trade Push: Afghanistan’s industry and commerce officials used the Termez Dialogue to stress Kabul’s role as a bridge for Central and South Asia, highlighting the Afghan-Trans rail project to boost trade and transit. Energy Dependence: UNDP says Afghanistan imports about 80% of its electricity, underscoring how grid instability can ripple into production and services. Security to Supply Chains: Reports also point to regional instability affecting movement and commerce, while Afghanistan’s connectivity agenda keeps focusing on reducing transit barriers for traders. Women in Energy Policy: UN Special Rapporteur Richard Bennett praised Samira Nawa’s appointment to Denmark’s climate and energy cabinet as a signal for inclusive leadership.

Regional Connectivity: Afghanistan’s Minister of Industry and Commerce Nooruddin Azizi used the Termez Dialogue to push Afghanistan as a bridge for Central and South Asia, highlighting the Trans-Afghan Railway and trade/transit links. Standards & Trade: Afghanistan Standards and Quality Authority says over 34 tonnes of substandard construction and electrical materials were rejected and sent back at Islam Qala, including batteries and rebar. Cross-Border Logistics: Afghanistan and Uzbekistan agreed new steps to ease transit and trade, with talks focused on customs facilitation, cargo movement, and obstacles for Afghan exporters. Energy & Infrastructure: Tajikistan’s Rogun hydropower project is entering a decisive phase, with tunnels, diversion works and major turbine construction advancing toward a planned mega-dam. Agriculture & Environment: UNDP warns climate shocks are worsening in Afghanistan, while separate reporting notes deforestation has slowed but forest cover remains very low. Security & Labor Risks: Afghanistan condemned the killing of three Afghan migrants burned alive in Italy, where prosecutors say seasonal agricultural workers were targeted; the case spotlights exploitation risks in supply chains. Market Disruption: Pakistan’s border closures with Afghanistan are reported to be costing Pakistan’s external trade sector about $1.4bn, disrupting transport and exports.

Jobs & Wages: Kabul’s daily wage laborers are calling for more work as unemployment worsens, with pay too low to cover rent and basic services, while the WFP says access to wage work has fallen to nearly two days per week. Tourism & Agriculture Protection: Nuristan residents say Eid tourism is rising but urge visitors to avoid gathering in agricultural fields, protect cleanliness, and stop damage to crops and farmland. Food & Weather Outlook: FAO forecasts June rainfall in Afghanistan will be near normal overall, but warns some northeastern areas could see heavy rain, flash floods, and hail that may hurt crops, alongside hotter conditions that raise water demand. Pest Threat to Farming: In Ghor’s Tulak District, locusts and “kafshak” insects have damaged thousands of hectares, and farmers warn authorities have not acted fast enough to stop further losses. Trade & Transit: Afghanistan’s trade with Central Asia jumped in 2025, with imports up 43% and exports up 77%, as Hairatan port operations run around the clock amid disruptions elsewhere. Regional Energy Cooperation: Tajikistan is pushing renewable energy and regional electricity exports to strengthen energy security and support industry as glacier melt and seasonal river-flow risks grow. Women’s Education & Economy: UNICEF Innocenti links restrictions on girls’ secondary education to weaker human capital, projecting fewer employable health workers and teachers and long-term strain on public services. Industry & Labor Safety Abroad: Reports from Italy highlight exploitation in agricultural labor networks, after four migrant workers (including Afghans) were killed in a vehicle fire in Calabria—an issue that also affects Afghanistan-linked workers.

Afghanistan Water & Agriculture: The UN FAO warns Afghanistan’s wheat outlook may look okay, but water pressure is rising as snow reserves shrink, groundwater falls, and warmer temperatures plus likely El Niño threaten summer irrigation, livestock, and rangelands. Afghan Oil Push: Afghanistan’s Islamic Emirate says it has opened five new oil wells in Jawzjan’s Amu Darya basin, handled by Afghan engineers—an early step toward broader production. Afghan Rail Freight Upgrade: Afghanistan’s rail corridor gets a capacity boost with an additional terminal on the Hairatan line, aiming to improve freight flow. Taliban–Russia Military Ties: Taliban acting defense chief Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob signals deterrence toward Pakistan while framing Russia’s military-technical cooperation as maintenance of existing Russian systems, not a new security pact. Regional Trade Shock: Pakistan’s commerce ministry links conflict spillovers to major export and transit losses tied to Afghanistan tensions, while the Iran crisis threatens more costs and reduced competitiveness. Migrant Labor Tragedy (Italy): Three Afghans and one Pakistani were killed in a Calabria minivan fire; arrests follow, highlighting risks for agricultural workers.

Afghanistan-Russia Trade & Travel: Kabul and Moscow are discussing a visa-free regime for businesspeople, aiming to boost trade, transit and investment ties as cooperation deepens under recent technical agreements. Energy & Oil: The Taliban opened five new oil wells in Jawzjan’s Amu Darya basin, saying Afghan engineers handled the project—an early push to expand domestic oil production. Regional Connectivity: The second Termez Dialogue (June 4-6) in Tashkent will bring 150+ representatives to focus on Afghanistan-Uzbekistan-Pakistan transit, logistics, trade and investment, with an ACCI delegation in attendance. Education Needs in Zabul: Orphaned children in Khak-e-Afghan district of Zabul are calling for more access to modern schooling, including a new school and dormitory support. Security & Community Impact: Reports from eastern and northern Afghanistan describe two separate deaths—one a missing teacher found in agricultural fields, and another a man shot during evening prayers—prompting investigations. Local Governance & Land: A separate report alleges the Taliban is reshaping ethnic demographics via resettlement of Pashtun families into non-Pashtun provinces, though independent verification is limited.

Humanitarian Leadership: Carl Skau has taken over as acting executive director of the UN World Food Programme, stepping in after Cindy McCain’s planned departure, as WFP warns acute hunger is rising and funding gaps are widening. Jobs & Livelihoods: A WFP report says Afghanistan’s labor market kept weakening in late May, with casual workers averaging just 1.9 days of work per week, squeezed by returnee competition and still-tight household purchasing power. Housing & Construction: The Afghan government says it has distributed 35,719 plots to returnees across 18 provinces to build homes, with more townships planned as shelter demand climbs. Water Infrastructure: Three water supply networks were inaugurated in Nangarhar’s Shirzad district, delivering clean water to 850 families at a reported cost of 17 million afghani. Agriculture Risk: Farmers in Badghis report wheat bug infestations damaging crops and orchards, while officials say they cleared 800 jeribs—yet growers warn losses could deepen without stronger support. Security & Supply Chains: Afghan forces dismantled clandestine drug-processing labs and incinerated 3,400 kg of illicit narcotics in Ghor and Uruzgan, alongside poppy eradication efforts in Samangan. Cybersecurity: Researchers report a Pakistan-aligned SideCopy spear-phishing campaign using Xeno RAT to target Afghanistan’s Ministry of Finance and provincial revenue offices. Industry & Trade Linkages: Uzbekistan will host the second Termez Dialogue on connectivity (June 4–6), with sessions expected to cover logistics, security, climate and cooperation involving Afghanistan. Community & Social Economy: In Kabul, mass weddings are helping young couples bypass costly traditions, with one event bringing together about 400 couples supported by donors and a local charity.

Afghanistan-Russia Trade: Afghanistan’s trade with Russia nearly doubled in 1404, rising from $296m to $590m, but exports still lag at about $5m, leaving the balance heavily import-driven. Energy & Industry Policy: The Islamic Emirate published a law on assessing movable and immovable properties of absent persons, setting rules for preservation and restitution through a dedicated directorate under the Supreme Court’s military deputyship. Logistics & Trade Corridors: Gwadar Port activity is picking up as regional conflict reshapes routes; port utilisation is reported at 30%, with tariff cuts aimed at boosting transshipment and container handling. Agriculture Exports: Mango export targets in Pakistan were cut by nearly 30% for the June season amid Middle East tensions, higher freight costs, and weaker yields—an indirect reminder of how regional instability can hit food supply chains. Humanitarian Pressure on Industry: Aid groups warn that war in Iran has shattered homes, businesses, schools, and clinics, with millions displaced—conditions that also disrupt regional production and trade.

Agriculture & Food Security: Farmers in Herat report a fast-spreading sunn pest infestation that is damaging wheat and cutting yields, with complaints that pesticides sold locally are low quality and government support has been minimal. Energy & Trade: Afghan-Iran economic ties got a boost in talks in Mashhad, with officials pushing expanded cooperation, work-visa facilitation, and renewed passenger transport between Taybad and Herat; trade is cited at about $3.5 billion. Healthcare & Industry: Russia’s Pharmasyntez says it will start exporting medicines to Afghanistan this summer, aiming to improve access to quality drugs amid ongoing concerns from patients and caretakers. Security & Supply Chains: Afghan counter-narcotics police in Balkh seized 199 kg of hashish and arrested seven smugglers, while also destroying about 1,000 acres of poppy fields in Samangan. Humanitarian Operations: UN OCHA reports 309 humanitarian organizations operating across Afghanistan in Jan–Mar 2026, with Kabul, Kunar, Nangarhar and Herat among the largest hubs.

Iran–Afghanistan Trade Talks: Iran’s Khorasan Razavi governor met Afghanistan’s Mashhad consul general to push expanded economic cooperation, faster work-visa issuance, and better border infrastructure, with trade volume cited at about $3.5 billion. Healthcare Imports: Russia’s Pharmasyntez says it will start exporting medicines to Afghanistan this summer, with first shipments expected within two months, as patients stress the need for quality drugs. Energy for Services: UNDP reports Afghanistan generates only 15–17% of its electricity domestically and spends $220–280 million yearly on imports; it links reliable power to better school hours and health services via its SESEHA project. Public Health Campaign: WHO marks World No Tobacco Day by warning that tobacco products use sweet flavors and deceptive tactics to hook users, with one in four adults reported to use tobacco. Food & Farming Support: FAO says it cleared over 33,000 meters of irrigation canals and delivered emergency livestock feed after Afghanistan’s 2025 earthquake, targeting nearly 500,000 affected people. Education Access: UN notes reliable electricity in rural schools can improve learning and daily life, citing a Laghman school serving 250 students (96 girls). Agriculture Shock: FAO-linked reports highlight growing agricultural stress as locust pressure and climate-linked disruptions threaten livelihoods in the region.

Afghan Garment Jobs: Afghanistan’s first modern women’s clothing design factory has started operations, using computerized machinery and completing design-to-production stages domestically after relocating from Pakistan—officials say it’s expanding employment and pushing local sourcing, while calling for faster customs, reliable electricity, and smoother administration. Public Health & Tobacco: WHO Afghanistan marked World No Tobacco Day by warning that tobacco firms use sweet flavors and deceptive tactics to hook users, urging stronger smoke-free enforcement and shared responsibility to cut tobacco harm. Family Planning in Ghor: In western Ghor, women report side effects from contraceptives used for birth spacing, while health specialists stress a two-year interval to protect mothers and newborns and recommend choosing methods with doctors. Road Safety for Returnees: A truck carrying Afghan returnees overturned in Laghman’s Sorkhakan area, killing at least 18 and injuring 30, with overcrowding suspected and an investigation underway. Regional Trade Push: An Afghan delegation joined Uzbekistan’s Namangan Flower Festival to showcase Afghan flowers, agricultural products, and handicrafts, aiming to attract regional investors and strengthen private-sector trade links. Tobacco Use Snapshot: WHO also reiterated that one in four adults in Afghanistan uses tobacco, with naswar the most common form and rising use among young people.

Trade & Industry Diplomacy: An Afghan delegation led by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s Deputy Director for Investments, Ariyanom Azizi, joined Uzbekistan’s 65th Namangan International Flower Festival to showcase Afghan flowers, agricultural goods and handicrafts, aiming to attract regional investors and new private-sector contacts. Security & Finance: A Pakistan-linked threat actor, SideCopy (Transparent Tribe/APT36), reportedly ran a spear-phishing campaign against Afghanistan’s Ministry of Finance, targeting all 34 provincial revenue directorates and using a Pashto-themed lure tied to a “psychological warfare seminar.” Transport & Supply Chains: Iran-Pakistan’s newly activated land corridor is drawing attention as an alternative transit route that can bypass maritime restrictions and support Central Asia-bound cargo, with reports saying the first shipment reached Tashkent. Pharma Market Pressure: In Kandahar, pharmacists say the suspension of trade and transit—especially the ban on importing Pakistani medicines—has cut supply, pushed prices up sharply, and reduced drug quality, with shortages reported for common medicines and chronic-care drugs. Climate & Flood Risk: WHO urges Afghans to treat flood safety seriously even after waters recede, warning of flash-flood danger and recommending practical steps to protect families and homes. Water Management: Pakistan’s Indus system dispute spillover continues as Sindh faces a 22% shortage and IRSA keeps an equalisation approach despite Sindh’s objections over rainfall-linked inflows.

Afghanistan-India Trade: Afghanistan’s trade with India hit $1.001bn in solar year 1404, up 12% year-on-year, with exports like figs, raisins, saffron, pistachios and dried apricots driving growth and imports including medicinal products, cotton textiles and parboiled rice. Medicines Supply Shock: In Kandahar, pharmacists say the halt in Pakistani medicine imports has cut availability and pushed prices sharply higher, with some key drugs for colds, fever, diabetes, blood pressure and children’s illnesses becoming scarce or more expensive. Rail & Logistics Push: Afghanistan completed works to expand rail freight capacity on the Uzbekistan–Mazar-i-Sharif line, opening a new fifth freight facility worth $6.3m, aimed at easing cargo flow. Skills for Jobs: UNICEF says it is equipping Kandahar youth with solar energy technical skills tied to market needs and income generation. Flood Safety: WHO urges Afghans to keep protecting families from flash-flood risks even after waters recede, including staying away from flood-prone areas and keeping homes clean and dry. Climate Risk: The UN weather agency warns the hottest year on record is almost certain within five years, raising the odds of stronger heatwaves and wider disaster impacts.

Afghanistan Trade & Transport: Afghanistan’s rail freight push got a boost with a new terminal on the Hairatan–Mazar-i-Sharif line, expanding capacity on the Uzbekistan corridor and supporting faster movement of goods. Regional Connectivity & Deals: Uzbekistan and Afghanistan also moved cargo infrastructure forward with a new Hairatan–Mazar-i-Sharif railway cargo terminal, while broader trade talks and agreements keep pointing to Central Asia as Afghanistan’s key market link. Industry & Jobs: Herat’s pharmaceutical industry is seeing sharp growth, and a Kabul woman’s home-based chocolate business is creating jobs for dozens—small wins that matter for local production and livelihoods. Agriculture & Rural Income: In Kandahar, beekeeping backed by UNODC is giving farmers a legal alternative to narcotics cultivation, with honey harvests already underway. Security & Disruption Risks: The Russia–Afghan Taliban military cooperation agreement signals deeper security engagement that could affect regional projects and investment confidence. Energy & Infrastructure: Reports also highlight ongoing power and dam output improvements in Afghanistan, reinforcing the push to stabilize supply for industry.